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The Congress, reeling from its recent setbacks in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir, has issued a stern warning to its Maharashtra leaders to avoid overconfidence and work cohesively to secure victory in the upcoming state Assembly elections. The party's central leadership, acutely aware of the potential ramifications of complacency, is urging caution at every step. The Election Commission's announcement of the election schedule for Maharashtra and Jharkhand has set the stage for a crucial electoral battle, serving as a double test for the Opposition INDIA bloc, particularly in the wake of the Congress's dismal performance in the aforementioned states.
The upcoming elections present a series of complex challenges for the INDIA bloc. The first and foremost is to arrive at a mutually agreeable seat-sharing agreement within the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition in Maharashtra. This three-party alliance, comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP(SP), is eager to unseat the BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP government, buoyed by the alliance's impressive performance in the Lok Sabha elections. However, the process of seat allocation is likely to be fraught with tension, as each party seeks to maximize its share of the pie. The Congress, having won 13 of the 30 seats secured by the INDIA bloc in Maharashtra during the Lok Sabha elections, is aiming for a larger share in the Assembly elections.
The contentious issue of projecting a chief ministerial face further complicates matters. The Shiv Sena (UBT) is advocating for Uddhav Thackeray to be named the CM face, while the Congress is hesitant, considering its own strong showing in the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress argues that its pan-Maharashtra presence justifies a larger share of seats in the Assembly polls and positions it favorably for the top post in the event of the alliance's victory. Despite the Congress's push for a larger share of seats, the unanimous consensus reached at a meeting with Maharashtra leaders was that the alliance should not project a CM face. The Congress aims to contest 110-115 seats out of the total 288, leaving 90-95 seats for the Sena (UBT) and 80-85 seats for the NCP (SP).
The next challenge for the INDIA bloc is to mount a united campaign and effectively communicate a compelling narrative that highlights the MVA's ability to defeat the BJP, whose confidence is high following its victories in Haryana and J&K. In Jharkhand, the Congress plays a junior partner role, but the issue of seat-sharing remains a crucial aspect of the campaign strategy. The JMM, which had a better strike rate in the last Assembly elections, is seeking more seats than before, potentially leading to complications in the negotiations. The Congress, having gained two MLAs from rival parties, is demanding 33 seats. The JMM-Congress combine faces the challenge of overcoming anti-incumbency sentiment in Jharkhand, a task further complicated by the NDA's strong showing in the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP, having secured 46 of the 81 Assembly segments in the Lok Sabha elections, aims to capitalize on its recent victories to solidify its position in the upcoming state elections.
The upcoming elections in both states hold significant national implications for both the BJP and the INDIA bloc. The BJP, buoyed by its recent wins in Haryana and J&K, is seeking to reinforce its narrative of national dominance, paving the way for the upcoming Delhi and Bihar elections. Conversely, the Congress, seeking to solidify its position as a formidable opposition force, urgently needs victories to exert pressure on the Narendra Modi government, which currently relies on the support of coalition partners. The stakes are particularly high for Rahul Gandhi, who is striving to demonstrate the party's revival and assert its national relevance.
Source: Haryana effect? Rahul Gandhi warns Maharashtra Congress leaders against ‘overconfidence’