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Chennai and its neighboring districts are bracing for heavy rainfall in the coming week, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issuing an orange alert for October 15th. This signifies the likelihood of heavy to very heavy pre-monsoon rain, ranging from 6 to 20 cm, across Chennai, Kancheepuram, Chengalpet, and Tiruvallur. The IMD has also issued a yellow alert for Chennai and its suburbs for October 14th and 16th, indicating a possibility of heavy rainfall (6 to 12 cm).
The anticipated rain activity is attributed to a weather system expected to develop over the Bay of Bengal. This system is likely to bring spells of rain across several districts in the coming week. Bloggers, such as Pradeep John, have noted that the system's movement speed could influence the duration of rainfall. If the system moves slowly, Chennai could experience extended rainfall periods.
In the immediate future, the city and suburbs are likely to experience moderate intensity rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning. The sky is expected to be partly cloudy, with maximum temperatures ranging from 32°C to 33°C and minimum temperatures between 25°C and 26°C. This information was shared in an IMD bulletin. Currently, there is an upper air cyclonic circulation over the south Tamil Nadu coast and another over the southwest Bay of Bengal. Meteorologists predict that the latter system may develop into a low-pressure system and move along the Tamil Nadu coast, bringing rainfall to several districts.
The potential development of this system into a depression remains uncertain, as its proximity to the coast, rather than deep sea waters, might limit its energy gain. On October 14th, districts like Nagapattinam, Thanjavur, Thiruvarur, Kancheepuram, Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kallakurichi, Tiruvannamalai, Ariyalur, Chengalpet, and Mayiladuthurai are likely to receive heavy rain. The rain intensity is expected to increase on October 15th, with Tiruvallur, Chennai, Kancheepuram, and Chengalpet anticipated to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall. Rainfall may continue on October 16th, with ghat areas of Coimbatore, Nilgiris, Erode, Dharmapuri, Tirupattur, Kancheepuram, Chennai, Krishnagiri, Salem, and Tiruvannamalai districts potentially experiencing heavy rainfall.
In recent days, Chennai has experienced light intensity rain spells, with cloudy weather keeping daytime temperatures down. The overnight rainfall has resulted in 1 cm of rain in both Nungambakkam and Meenambakkam. The day after the night spells was pleasant, with temperatures at Nungambakkam and Meenambakkam recorded at 32.1°C and 31.4°C, respectively, which is 0.8°C and 1.5°C below normal.
Blogger Pradeep John, in an online post, predicted that the system forming over the south-central Bay will likely move towards the north Tamil Nadu-South Andhra Pradesh coast. He highlighted that systems following this route typically bring substantial rainfall to the north Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh coasts, especially for the convex shape of the Chennai coast, making it a hotspot. He added that if the low pressure slows down near the coast, it could lead to rainfall lasting for more than two to three days.