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Sri Lanka's resounding 2-0 whitewash over New Zealand in the recent Test series has thrown a wrench into India's World Test Championship (WTC) final aspirations. With a third consecutive Test victory in Galle, Sri Lanka secured a historic triumph, echoing their 2009 feat. This win catapulted Sri Lanka to third place in the WTC points table, leaving India, currently at the top, facing a precarious situation. India's second Test against Bangladesh in Kanpur was washed out by rain, leaving their chances of qualifying for the WTC final hanging in the balance.
Prior to the Kanpur Test, India was the favorite to make the final for the third consecutive time. A win in Kanpur would have left them just three wins away from a guaranteed qualification, with eight matches in hand. However, the drawn match in Kanpur necessitates a near-perfect performance in the upcoming series against New Zealand and Australia. Not only must India whitewash New Zealand 3-0 in their home series next month, but they must also win at least two of their five matches in the Border-Gavaskar Test series in Australia later this year.
Sri Lanka, meanwhile, faces two Tests in South Africa and two at home against Australia in their remaining WTC fixtures. A whitewash over South Africa would almost guarantee them a spot in the final, though this scenario is considered unlikely due to Sri Lanka's historically poor performance in South Africa. They have only achieved three wins in 17 matches across seven visits to the Rainbow Nation, despite securing a historic 2-0 whitewash in 2019.
A more realistic scenario sees Sri Lanka pulling off a 1-1 draw in South Africa and defeating Australia at home. This outcome would secure them a WTC points percentage (PCT) of 61.54. A possible Sri Lanka-South Africa final could materialize if South Africa beats both Bangladesh and Pakistan by a 2-0 margin, giving them a PCT of 61.11. However, this scenario hinges on Australia's performance against India, requiring them to win the Border-Gavaskar series 4-1.
If India loses the series 0-4, Australia's PCT would rise to 62.28. A 1-3 loss would leave India with the same PCT, 62.28. But regardless of the exact outcome, Sri Lanka's qualification for the WTC final would be secured. This complex web of scenarios underlines the tension surrounding the remainder of the WTC cycle, where every match holds significant weight for India and Sri Lanka as they vie for a place in the championship final.