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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast predicting above-normal rainfall in September, following a month of heavy rain in August. The predicted rainfall for September is expected to exceed 109% of the long-period average (LPA) for the month, which stands at 168mm. This indicates a significant increase in rainfall compared to typical September levels.
The IMD attributes this anticipated rainfall to the formation of low-pressure systems, which are expected to occur almost every week throughout September. These systems will bring continuous rain, with the potential for extremely heavy episodes in the Himalayan foothills, particularly in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, and Rajasthan. The director general of meteorology, M. Mohapatra, has issued a warning, urging caution due to the risk of landslides and floods in these areas.
At least two cyclonic disturbances are expected to form in the coming week, one over the Arabian Sea and the other over the Bay of Bengal. The IMD predicts that two additional systems will form during the second and third week of September. All four systems are expected to move towards west Uttar Pradesh, with those forming in the Bay of Bengal potentially traveling further northwest to Rajasthan. These low-pressure systems are a primary driver of monsoon rainfall. Further intensifying the monsoon, the monsoon trough is predicted to shift towards the Himalayan foothills during this period.
While the northern regions are expected to experience heavy rain, some parts of southern India, including Rayalseema, southern Karnataka, north Bihar, and northeast Uttar Pradesh, as well as most of northeast India, are predicted to receive below-average rainfall. The overall southwest monsoon has been above average, currently exceeding the LPA by 7%.
The IMD forecast also anticipates above-normal temperatures during both the day and night. Extended range predictions for the next two weeks indicate extremely heavy rains over Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh this week, and heavy rainfall over central India, northwest India, and northern parts for the next two weeks.
The southwest monsoon experienced a subpar performance in June but gained momentum in July, bringing above-normal rainfall over the past two months. July ended with 9% above-normal rain, exceeding the IMD's predictions, and August also saw an excess of rainfall, reaching 15% above the LPA, significantly higher than the IMD's forecast of 'normal rain'.
The Bay of Bengal arm of the monsoon has remained active throughout August, generating multiple weather systems. There were six such systems, one of which intensified into a rare cyclone over the Arabian Sea during the monsoon season. This active monsoon pattern has contributed to the above-normal rainfall experienced in recent months.
Source: Brace For September Showers: IMD Predicts Above-Normal, Continuous Heavy Spells, Advises ‘Caution’