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The article delves into the strategic miscalculations made by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in the wake of Hamas's surprise attack on Israel in October 2023. Nasrallah, known for his careful planning, had aimed to support Hamas's fight while avoiding a full-blown war that could engulf Lebanon. However, Israel, fueled by domestic pressure and a desire to reclaim its northern border, launched a series of targeted strikes against Hezbollah, effectively dismantling the group's infrastructure and shattering the myth of its invulnerability.
Israel's campaign targeted not just military assets but also high-ranking Hezbollah figures, creating a leadership vacuum within the organization. The assassination of several top commanders, including those leading the rocket division and the elite Radwan force, highlighted the effectiveness of Israel's intelligence gathering and infiltration efforts. The article cites reports suggesting that Israel had successfully planted informants within Hezbollah, providing them with critical information about Nasrallah's movements and security arrangements.
Despite the heavy losses, Hezbollah, with its estimated 40,000 fighters, extensive tunnel network, and significant weapons stockpiles, is expected to continue fighting. However, the article emphasizes that the group's strategic capacity and overall strength have been significantly compromised by Israel's campaign. The strategic calculations that Nasrallah had meticulously crafted to balance support for Hamas with the avoidance of a full-scale war have ultimately failed, leaving Hezbollah in a weakened position and facing a challenging future.
Source: How Hezbollah's 'limited war' calculation failed spectacularly as Israel went for the knockout