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India's recent diplomatic activities, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visits to Kyiv and his subsequent phone calls with US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, have ignited speculation about India's potential role in peacemaking efforts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While India has consistently espoused a stance of peace, its close ties with Russia, both historically and in terms of military and energy dependence, have raised concerns about its impartiality. This delicate balancing act poses a significant challenge for India as it navigates the complexities of the conflict.
The war's protracted nature, with both sides believing they can still achieve military gains, underscores the deep divisions and the lack of a clear path to resolution. The ongoing hostilities, illustrated by Russia's deadly attacks on Ukraine prior to Modi's Moscow visit and Ukraine's operations into Russia's Kursk Oblast before his Kyiv trip, highlight the volatile power dynamics and the risk of inflammatory actions even during high-level diplomacy. These factors necessitate caution for India as it considers its involvement in peacemaking, given the historical difficulties and the high stakes involved.
Successful peace efforts in the conflict have been limited, with notable examples including the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the IAEA's work on nuclear safety at the Zaporizhzhia power plant, and the recent prisoner exchange. These initiatives highlight the importance of focused agendas and specific, achievable goals. For India to make a meaningful contribution, it must articulate its own principles for a ceasefire, a compromise, and a lasting peace. Examining India's own history, particularly Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru's successful mediation in post-war Austria, could provide valuable lessons. However, India's peace initiative will be further complicated by the conflicting proposals put forward by Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine insists on Russia's complete withdrawal, while Russia demands Ukrainian forces to withdraw from occupied territories and Kyiv's renunciation of NATO aspirations. This stark disagreement underscores the deep-seated divisions that must be bridged to achieve a lasting peace.
Source: War and peace: on India and a Russia-Ukraine peace initiative