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A recent study, published in the open-access journal Science Advances, has sparked a controversy in India regarding the true toll of the Covid-19 pandemic. Researchers from various universities, including Oxford, utilized data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 2019-21 to estimate that India experienced nearly 12 lakh excess deaths in 2020, a figure significantly higher than the official Covid-19 death count for that year. This stark discrepancy has prompted a fierce debate between the researchers and the Indian government, with each side accusing the other of flawed methodology.
The study, authored by a team of international researchers, analyzed mortality data from a subset of households included in the NFHS survey between January and April 2021. By comparing mortality rates in these households between 2019 and 2020, the researchers concluded that life expectancy at birth had decreased by 2.6 years in 2020, a substantial reduction exceeding that observed in any high-income country during the same period. Notably, the decline in life expectancy was more pronounced among marginalized social groups, including women, Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Muslims. The study found that Muslim life expectancy was the lowest among all five social groups, attributing this to further marginalization of the community during 2020.
The Indian government, through its health ministry, has vehemently rejected the study's findings, labeling them 'gross and misleading.' The ministry critiqued the methodology, arguing that the NFHS sample is representative only when considered as a whole and that the 23% of households included in the analysis from 14 states cannot be deemed representative of the entire nation. Additionally, the ministry expressed concerns about potential selection and reporting biases in the sample, given its collection period coincided with the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the ministry countered that the study's claim of greater excess mortality among women and younger age groups contradicted data on recorded Covid-19 deaths and research findings from cohorts and registries, which consistently indicate higher mortality rates among men and older age groups. The ministry also emphasized that excess mortality during the pandemic encompasses deaths from all causes, not solely Covid-19-related deaths. Finally, the ministry argued that data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) showed minimal, if any, excess mortality in 2020 compared to 2019 and no reduction in life expectancy.
The study, while controversial, has shed light on the potential underestimation of the Covid-19 death toll in India and highlighted the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on marginalized communities. The debate surrounding the study's methodology and the government's counter-arguments underscore the complexities of measuring and understanding the true impact of pandemics, particularly in countries with diverse social and economic landscapes. Moving forward, further research and data analysis are crucial to accurately assess the true extent of the Covid-19 pandemic's impact in India and inform public health policy.
Source: 12 lakh excess deaths in Covid year, estimates study; govt says methodology flawed