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Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalist party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has taken a comfortable lead in the early vote count for India's general elections, according to figures released by the Election Commission on Tuesday. However, the opposition Congress party and its allies have put up a stronger challenge than expected, making the race for power more competitive than anticipated.
With over 640 million votes cast in the world's largest democratic exercise, the counting process is expected to take all day, with the final result likely to be declared later on Tuesday. Exit polls conducted over the weekend had projected the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to win more than 350 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the lower house of India's parliament. However, early trends suggest that the NDA may fall short of that target.
The BJP is currently leading in 240 constituencies, while the Congress is ahead in 94. The NDA, which includes the BJP and several smaller parties, is leading in 287 constituencies, while the opposition INDIA alliance, led by the Congress party and its main campaign leader, Rahul Gandhi, is leading in 225. The Election Commission does not release data on the percentage of votes tallied, but counting is expected to continue throughout the day and early figures are expected to change.
Modi, 73, is seeking a third consecutive term in office, which would make him only the second Indian leader after Jawaharlal Nehru, the country's first prime minister, to achieve this feat. His popularity has outstripped that of his party's, and he has turned a parliamentary election into one that increasingly resembles a presidential-style campaign. The BJP relies more and more on Modi's enduring brand to stay in power, with local politicians receding into the background even in state elections.
Modi's supporters see him as a self-made, strong leader who has improved India's standing in the world, and credit his pro-business policies with making the economy the world's fifth-largest. However, his critics say his Hindu-first politics have bred intolerance, hate speech, and brazen attacks against the country's minorities, especially Muslims, who comprise 14% of the population.
India's economy, one of the fastest-growing, has become more unequal under Modi. While stock markets reach record-highs and millionaires multiply, youth unemployment has soared, with only a small portion of Indians benefiting from the economic boom. Modi's critics also accuse his government of faltering democracy, with increasing use of strong-arm tactics to subdue political opponents, squeeze independent media, and quash dissent.
The opposition Congress party and its allies have attacked Modi over his Hindu nationalist politics and have campaigned on issues of joblessness, inflation, and inequality. However, the broad alliance of over a dozen political parties has been beset by ideological differences and defections, raising questions over their effectiveness.
Another victory for Modi would cement his status as one of India's most popular and important leaders. It would follow a thumping win in 2019, when the BJP won 303 out of 543 parliamentary seats. However, the stronger-than-expected challenge from the opposition suggests that Modi's dominance may not be as unassailable as once thought.
Source: Modi’s party well ahead in Indian elections in early vote count but opposition stiffer than expected