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The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising the BJP, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), and the Jana Sena Party (JSP), is poised to secure 98 to 120 of the 175 Assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh, according to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll.
If the numbers hold true on June 4, when the results of the Andhra Pradesh assembly elections will be declared, it would signal a dramatic resurgence for TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu and a significant setback for the incumbent Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy.
Jagan Mohan Reddy’s tenure has been marked by extensive welfare schemes known as "navaratnalu" (nine gems), which have been popular vote-getters in past elections. However, the exit poll suggests that voters are frustrated by issues such as inadequate infrastructure, unreliable power supply, lack of drinking water, high electricity bills, and soaring prices of essential commodities.
Additionally, Jagan Mohan’s promise of job creation remains largely unfulfilled, contributing to rising unemployment and public discontent.
Jagan Mohan Reddy’s policies aimed at the backward classes have also faced significant criticism. His administration's efforts to woo the backward classes included various sops and the retention of a 4% reservation for Muslims.
However, his refusal to extend similar benefits to the Kapu community, a numerically significant group, has fuelled resentment. These decisions, often labelled as "minority appeasement" by the opposition, may have alienated key voter segments.
Compounding his challenges, Jagan Mohan Reddy’s strategy in selecting candidates for the simultaneous Assembly and Lok Sabha elections sparked discontent within the YSRCP.
Anticipating anti-incumbency, he replaced or relocated several sitting MLAs, dropping 14 sitting MPs and 37 MLAs from the candidate list. This move has led to widespread dissatisfaction among leaders and cadres, prompting an exodus to rival parties.
Chandrababu Naidu’s arrest in September 2023 over an alleged scam involving the State Skill Development Corporation during his tenure as Chief Minister generated substantial sympathy for the veteran politician.
Naidu’s imprisonment, which lasted two months, spurred protests and widespread public outcry, bolstering his support base. This sympathy wave has played a crucial role in reinvigorating his political fortunes.
The TDP is likely to emerge as the largest party in Andhra Pradesh as per the exit poll, a success that may not have been possible without the strategic alliances it formed.
The star power of ‘Power Star’ Pawan Kalyan, leader of the Jana Sena Party, has been pivotal in energising the TDP’s campaign. Kalyan, known for his substantial (and young) fan base and crowd-pulling ability, helped forge a three-party alliance with the TDP and BJP to challenge the YSRCP.
His solidarity with Naidu during the latter’s imprisonment, especially his jail visit, resonated with voters, enhancing the coalition's appeal.
The NDA alliance also benefited from the BJP’s involvement, which helped consolidate the Kamma-Kapu votes. The Kammas, traditional supporters of the TDP due to Naidu’s community ties, represent about 5% of the state's population. Meanwhile, Kalyan's Kapu community, making up approximately 18%, also played a significant role in the alliance’s potential success.
Source: Jagan Reddy to lose Andhra, predicts exit poll. 5 factors that likely hit him