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Psephologist-turned-politician Yogendra Yadav has predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will not win over 272 seats in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024. Yadav has claimed that the Opposition Congress is likely to win over 100 Lok Sabha seats.
Yadav's statement comes after political analyst Prashant Kishor and US poll expert Ian Bremmer predicted a clear victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Lok Sabha Elections. In a video released by Yadav, he said that after the Lok Sabha phase 5, he predicts that the BJP is likely to win 240-260 seats, the NDA allies are likely to win 35-45 seats, and the Congress is likely to win 85-100 seats.
Yadav also said that the INDIA bloc allies of Congress are likely to win 120-135 Lok Sabha seats. While the 400 seats claim was flimsy, for the BJP it will be difficult to win even 300 seats, Yadav said in his prediction.
Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor, who received flak on social media for his prediction in favor of the Bharatiya Janata Party, backed Yadav's seat forecast. Kishor said that according to Yadav, the BJP will win between 240-260 seats and its allies 34-45 seats, which means the NDA's total may hover between 275 and 305 seats.
A trusted face among those who understand elections and socio-political issues in the country, Yogendra Yadav has shared his 'final assessment' of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. According to Yogendra ji, BJP may get 240-260 seats and NDA's allies may get 35-45 seats in these elections, Kishor wrote on X.
Meaning 275-305 seats for BJP/NDA. To form the government in the country, 272 seats are required, and BJP/NDA has 303/323 seats in the outgoing Lok Sabha. (Shiv Sena won 18 seats as part of NDA but is no longer with them). Now assess yourself and see whose government is being formed. On June 4, we will know who is talking about whom, Kishor added.
Per Yadav, the Congress is likely to win between 85 and 100 seats. The INDIA bloc, hoping to stop the BJP juggernaut in its tracks, is likely to win 120-135 seats.
The Congress had won only 52 seats in the 2019 general elections.
In an interview this week, Kishor said that the BJP would comfortably cross the majority mark because there wasn't any significant dissatisfaction against the ruling party and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
There may be disappointment, unfulfilled aspirations, but we have not heard of widespread anger, Prashant Kishor told NDTV, hinting that the BJP may not achieve its ambitious '370 seats' target.
American political scientist Ian Bremmer told the channel that the BJP might win between 295 and 315 seats. The BJP had won 303 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 general elections, riding on the 'Modi wave' in Hindi heartland states.
To win 370 seats, the party will have to score landslide victories in states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, and Telangana.