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Political analyst Prashant Kishor has expressed agreement with psephologist Yogendra Yadav's prediction regarding the outcome of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, despite their differing estimates of the number of seats the BJP will secure.
Yadav has projected that the BJP will win between 240 and 260 seats, while its allies in the NDA will contribute an additional 35 to 45 seats, bringing the coalition's total to 275 to 305 seats. This would be sufficient for the NDA to form a government, as the required threshold is 272 seats.
In contrast, Kishor has predicted that the BJP will not surpass 370 seats on its own and will definitely not exceed 400 as claimed by some party leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, he believes the party will not fall below the 270-seat mark.
Yadav's forecast also suggests that the Congress-led INDIA bloc could potentially overtake the NDA if major political upheavals occur in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, two of the NDA's strongholds. He predicts that the Congress will win 85 to 100 seats, and its INDIA bloc members will get another 120 to 135, making the Opposition-led alliance bag 205 to 235 seats.
Both Kishor and Yadav have echoed the view that the BJP's claim of winning 'over 400' seats is unrealistic. Yadav has further predicted that the BJP will make gains in the stretch from Kerala to Odisha, but these gains will not be as substantial as the party anticipates.
However, he also predicts that the BJP will face losses in Karnataka, where it currently holds 25 seats and may end up winning no more than 12. In Bengal and the Northeast, Yadav expects the BJP to maintain its current position without significant gains or losses.
Yadav has also predicted that the BJP's performance in its stronghold states will be crucial in determining the party's overall showing in the Lok Sabha elections. He forecasts losses for the BJP and its allies in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Bihar.
Overall, the predictions of Prashant Kishor and Yogendra Yadav suggest that the BJP may face challenges in forming a government on its own and may require the support of its NDA allies. The outcome of the elections will hinge on the performance of the BJP in its stronghold states and the ability of the Opposition-led INDIA bloc to make significant gains.
It is important to note that these predictions are based on current trends and may change as the election campaign progresses and new developments emerge.
Source: Prashant Kishor sides with Yogendra Yadav's poll prediction: 'Judge for yourself'