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The Indian Premier League (IPL) 2024 has reached an intriguing stage where only one spot remains for the playoffs, with three teams vying for it: Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB), Chennai Super Kings (CSK), and Lucknow Super Giants (LSG). While LSG's chances are mathematically slim due to their Net Run Rate (NRR), the opportunity is still realistic for CSK and RCB, who are set to face off on Saturday.
CSK, with 14 points and a superior NRR of +0.528, has a slightly better chance of qualifying. RCB, on the other hand, has 12 points and a lower NRR, making their qualification scenario more challenging. The weather forecast also casts a shadow over the match, with the possibility of abandonment favoring CSK.
Even if the match proceeds and RCB defeats CSK, their qualification is not guaranteed. RCB must beat CSK by a margin of at least 18 runs if they bat first and score 200 runs. If RCB wins by 17 runs or less in this scenario, they will be eliminated due to an inferior NRR.
If RCB bats second, they must reach the target with 11 balls to spare while chasing a target of 201 runs. The qualification scenario is therefore not straightforward for RCB, with the current situation giving CSK a slightly better chance of securing a top 4 berth.
For CSK to qualify, they can afford a narrow defeat even if they fail to win the match. However, there is another scenario, albeit unlikely, where neither RCB nor CSK qualifies for the playoffs.
If LSG wins their last league match against Mumbai Indians by a significant margin and improves their NRR above RCB's, they could have a chance to qualify. In this scenario, LSG would need RCB to defeat CSK but by the narrowest of margins.
Source: IPL 2024 Playoffs Scenario: RCB Might Not Qualify Even If They Beat CSK. Here's How